5
Bad Connection
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 57
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 52/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |