Dream On Cara
6yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |