2
Follow Your Arrow
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 1/2 | 97% | 40% | -0.57 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |