1
Isle Storm
8yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 22/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 23/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |