4
Tale Of The Tail
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 60
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 21/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |