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6

Lady Of Mercia

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 38

Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Finger Lakes 26/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 36 · 5f110y Slo 121 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 36 par26/11C9OR 36C9 @ Finger Lakes 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 26 · 5f Fas 124 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 26 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 25/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 31 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 31 par25/05C9OR 31C9 @ Finger Lakes 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 32 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 32 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 32 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 32 par8/07C9OR 32C9 @ Finger Lakes 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 30 · 6f 124 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 30 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 30 · 6f 124 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 30 par12/08C9OR 30C8 @ Finger Lakes 09/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 33 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 33 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 22/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 34 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 34 par22/09C8OR 34projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-09-09Finger Lakes?9th9th0
2026-08-12Finger Lakes?1st2nd−1
2026-07-20Finger Lakes?4th5th−1
2026-07-08Finger Lakes?4th5th−1
2026-06-15Finger Lakes?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1115/0612/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +8.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20257th25/10%14%+0.14
12/05/20264th6/168%40%-0.28
25/05/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
15/06/20264th11/486%40%-0.46
08/07/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
20/07/20264th9/153%57%+0.05
12/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
09/09/20269th20/10%0%0.00
22/09/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78