1
Lucky And Gorgeous
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 53
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 04/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 26/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |