2
No Factor
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 48
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 15/05/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/08/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 22/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |