5
Stella Brown
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 41
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 22/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |