IvyArcIvyArc
7

Wayward Queen

3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 57

Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength80%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 01/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 40 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 40 par1/03C9OR 40C6 @ Finger Lakes 12/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 45 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 50 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 50 par8/06C6OR 50C6 @ Finger Lakes 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 47 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 47 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 54 · 1m70y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 54 par6/07C6OR 54C6 @ Finger Lakes 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 56 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 56 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 57 · 1m70y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 57 par12/08C6OR 57C6 @ Finger Lakes 25/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m70y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 58 parC9 @ Finger Lakes 22/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 58 · 1m 120 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 58 par22/09C9OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Finger Lakes?1st2nd−1
2026-08-25Finger Lakes?4th2nd+2
2026-08-12Finger Lakes?3rd1st+2
2026-07-15Finger Lakes?4th2nd+2
2026-07-06Presque Isle Downs?3rd1st+2
2026-06-22Finger Lakes?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0322/0612/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/03/20268th25/10%22%+0.22
12/05/20265th8/158%43%-0.15
08/06/20265th4/179%20%-0.59
22/06/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
06/07/20263rd13/266%50%-0.16
15/07/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
12/08/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07
25/08/20264th10/382%63%-0.20
22/09/20261st2/799%100%+0.02