1
Fidela
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 47
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-01-31 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 53/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 21/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |