13
Setanta
10yo Gelding · 8-13
Happy Valley · Bedford Handicap · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA33
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA33 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA39 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 11/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/03/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 01/10/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |