7
Smiling One
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 5
Happy Valley · Bedford Handicap · 1m 1f
#14
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 11.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA45 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 10-14 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 23/11/2025 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/04/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 13/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/07/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 16/09/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 23/09/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |