10
Splendid Force
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 4
Happy Valley · Bedford Handicap · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 9.4)
Highest class: BHA34
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA34 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA43 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/02/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 27/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 10/06/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 06/09/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |