12
Turf Phoenix
5yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 6
Happy Valley · Bedford Handicap · 1m 1f
#8
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | BHA22 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA29 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 4-14 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 09/11/2025 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 07/12/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 01/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 28/01/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 17/05/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |