6
Hayday
7yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 4
Happy Valley · Cheung Fat Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA55 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 27/05/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 12/07/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 23% | -0.56 |