8
I Am Back
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 6
Happy Valley · Cheung Fat Handicap · 6f
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 14-14 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -27.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/12/2025 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |