2
Lucky Mcqueen
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 10
Happy Valley · Cheung Fat Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |