3
Class
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 1
Happy Valley · Fat Tseung Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.7 /10 (raw 10.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA69 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 11/01/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 26/04/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 24/05/2026 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 23/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |