12
Glorious St Paul's
5yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 5
Happy Valley · Fat Tseung Handicap · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 9.8)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA44 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Sha Tin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Sha Tin | BHA48 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 23% | +0.07 |
| 08/02/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 19/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 07/06/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |