4
Sunday's Serenade
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 9
Happy Valley · Fat Tseung Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
97%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA44
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Sha Tin | BHA57 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 69/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 15/10/2025 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 9% | -0.75 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 19/11/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 10/12/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 85% | +0.19 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |