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6yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 5
Happy Valley · Fat Tseung Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
79%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 04/03/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 36% | -0.46 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |