1
Grand Nova
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 1
Happy Valley · The Chinese General Chamber Of Commerce Cup (Handicap) · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 27% | -0.54 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 82% | +0.77 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |
| 09/05/2026 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 15% | -0.37 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 54% | -0.15 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |