10
Iron Security
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3
Happy Valley · The Chinese General Chamber Of Commerce Cup (Handicap) · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 9.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA50 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA56 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength52%
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 01/03/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/03/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 17/05/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 13/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |