7
Poet's Reign
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4
Happy Valley · Cheung Fat Handicap · 6f
#13
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sha Tin | BHA52 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 08/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 26/04/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |