3
Starry Show
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 8
Happy Valley · Cheung Fat Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 8.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 11/03/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/04/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 20/05/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |