1
Aurora Lady
6yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Sha Tin | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Sha Tin | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Sha Tin | BHA90 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 30/04/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 04/06/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/07/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 15/11/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 30/11/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |