9
Bright Day
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 1
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA53 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength83%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 15/03/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 29/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |