13
Embraces
6yo Gelding · 8-9
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sha Tin | BHA71 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA73 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 27% | -0.44 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 45% | -0.15 |
| 25/01/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 55% | -0.14 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 62% | +0.06 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 85% | +0.58 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 16/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |