8
Matters Most
5yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 12
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 08/02/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/03/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 01/07/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 18% | -0.45 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |