12
Young Arrow
6yo Gelding · 8-5 · Draw 8
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 28/01/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 01/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 64% | -0.21 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |