1
Dazzling Fit
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 7
Happy Valley · Hing Fat Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
11/5
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Sha Tin | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 84/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 58% | -0.30 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 69% | -0.18 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 62% | -0.29 |
| 08/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 85% | +0.03 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 22/03/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |