4
Do You Just
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 4
Happy Valley · Hing Fat Handicap · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Sha Tin | BHA72 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sha Tin | BHA69 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 89/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 25/02/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 54% | +0.38 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |