8
Rising Phoenix
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5
Happy Valley · Hing Fat Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sha Tin | BHA58 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA60 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Sha Tin | BHA62 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 8-14 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 13/09/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |