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4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 11

Happy Valley · Hing Fat Handicap · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

SP

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Happy Valley 07/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 1317/01C?BHA55 @ Sha Tin 01/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 55 · 6f Gd 131 · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 55 parBHA54 @ Sha Tin 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 54 · 7f GF 129 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 54 par14/0254OR 54BHA60 @ Sha Tin 15/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f GF 135 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Sha Tin 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 60 par12/0460OR 60BHA60 @ Sha Tin 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA69 @ Sha Tin 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 69 · 7f Gd 129 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 69 par7/0669OR 69BHA69 @ Sha Tin 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m Slo 119 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 69 parBHA69 @ Sha Tin 13/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 69 · 7f GF 126 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 69 par13/0969OR 69projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Sha TinBHA695th5th0
2026-06-27Sha TinBHA695th5th0
2026-06-07Sha TinBHA692nd2nd0
2026-05-17Sha TinBHA601st1st0
2026-04-12Sha TinBHA603rd3rd0
2026-03-15Sha TinBHA6014th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0115/037/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +5.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/01/202610th15/890%18%-0.72
01/02/20269th14/126%38%+0.12
14/02/20261st28/10%100%+1.00
15/03/202614th16/116%0%-0.16
12/04/20263rd15/261%85%+0.24
17/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
07/06/20262nd5/174%92%+0.19
27/06/20265th5/174%69%-0.04
13/09/20265th16/116%69%+0.53