14
Violet Star
4yo Gelding · 8-10
Happy Valley · Hing Fat Handicap · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Sha Tin | BHA68 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Happy Valley | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 3-13 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |
| 08/03/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 22/04/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 27/09/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |