13
Win Method
4yo Gelding · 8-4
Happy Valley · Hing Fat Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Sha Tin | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 10/12/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/01/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 20/05/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |