8
Honest Witness
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength7%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 22/02/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 23% | -0.43 |
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 12th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 08/07/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/09/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |