9
Live Wire
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 9
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sha Tin | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sha Tin | BHA51 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 25/01/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 08/03/2026 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 45% | -0.46 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 85% | +0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |