2
Motor
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 11
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength55%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 23% | -0.14 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 01/03/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 78% | +0.36 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 09/09/2026 | 12th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |