14
Pegas
5yo Gelding · 9-0
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
SP
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA64
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Sha Tin | BHA68 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA70 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Happy Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 08/02/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 46% | -0.17 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 23/09/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |