11
Storming Dragon
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Happy Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Happy Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Happy Valley | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 27/06/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 23/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |