7
The Heir
7yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 1
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Sha Tin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | Sha Tin | BHA67 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Happy Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Happy Valley | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Happy Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Sha Tin | BHA54 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 82% | -0.12 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 82% | -0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 01/10/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |