12
Thunder Action
5yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 6
Happy Valley · Yip Fat Handicap · 6f
#14
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Sha Tin | BHA63 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Sha Tin | BHA64 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 4-14 · tight 41/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -21.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 31% | -0.06 |
| 27/06/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |