IvyArcIvyArc
5

Catch A Nite Train

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 77

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 5f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 77 par3/09C5OR 77C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 73 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 1m70y 1181/10C?C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 69 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 69 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 64 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 64 par8/04C5OR 64C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 67 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 78 par28/07C5OR 78C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 79 par15/09C8OR 79projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-08-19Horseshoe Indianapolis?10th7th+3
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th3rd+3
2026-06-23Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-2th+3
2026-04-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-2th+3
2025-10-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0914/1028/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20255th3/184%56%-0.29
17/09/20255th25/10%33%+0.33
01/10/20259th33/10%0%0.00
14/10/20253rd8/158%75%+0.17
08/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
23/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
28/07/20266th11/271%17%-0.54
19/08/202610th20/10%0%0.00
15/09/20264th3/184%40%-0.44