Mowins
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 03/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |