3
Spotonjustice
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |