3
Escondido Gold
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 86
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Hoosier Park Classic Stakes · 1f 180y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA77 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-05-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA73 | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2024-10-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA68 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 88/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/10/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 15/05/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 01/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |