7
Jess A Riot
5yo Mare · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 84
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Hoosier Park Classic Stakes · 1f 180y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA80 | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 09/10/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/11/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |