5
Mr Michel
7yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 88
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Hoosier Park Classic Stakes · 1f 180y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2024 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 09/10/2024 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |
| 26/10/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |